Donald Trump’s immediate plans for the apparel industry

On October 22, Donald Trump published his work programme for the first hundred days of his Presidency.

So far as this industry is concerned, that programme – reproduced, slightly abbreviated, at the end of this story – is clear.

• On his first day of office (January 20, 2017) he will:
  • Announce his intention to renegotiate NAFTA or withdraw from it entirely.
  • Announce US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
  • Direct the Secretary of the Treasury to label China a currency manipulator.
  • Direct the Secretary of Commerce and US Trade Representative to identify all foreign trading abuses that unfairly impact American workers and direct them to use every tool under American and international law to end those abuses immediately.

• Next, he will work with Congress to introduce ten Bills, including an End The Offshoring Act“establishing tariffs to discourage companies from laying off their [US] workers in order to relocate”. He will “fight for their passage within the first 100 days of my Administration”

• He will also try to introduce and get approved by Congress within 100 days an End Illegal Immigration Act fully funding a wall on America’s southern border, to be reimbursed by Mexico. This will impose tougher penalties on illegal and overstaying immigrants and ensure “open jobs are offered to American workers first”

His full programme is wide-ranging. There are many obstacles that might impede his completing the full Jan 20 “to-do” list, and even greater obstacles in the way of getting his ten Bills, as he described them on October 22, through Congress by April 30. If these ideas are enacted, they will involve economic consequences and reaction, both domestically and internationally, that cannot yet be predicted. External events, and domestic political pressure, will add new legislative priorities that might override issues that seemed priorities on the campaign trail

But we believe it is foolish to imagine he will not carry out – in his first few days as President – something like the five steps he has promised. And he will certainly try early in 2017 to get onto the Congressional programme bills that punish further offshoring, increase barriers against immigration across America’s southern border and discourage hiring foreigners.

As our opinion posting spells out, Trump’s immediate programme – whether it is fully implemented or not – marks a revolution in how the world’s largest importing nation is likely to manage trade: moving from a 70-year culture of meticulously cultivated negotiations and rule-driven behaviour to the code of a New York garmento looking for another ten cents off a t-shirt.

The evidence of the November 8 voting is that enough American voters to form an Electoral College majority want their trade policy run that way. Like it or not, we are seeing a 70-year consensus almost certainly about to disappear.

TRUMP’S DETAILED PROGRAMME

Here, slightly shortened, is that programme in Trump’s own words. The precise wording is on the web

“On the first day of my term of office, my administration will immediately pursue the following six measures to clean up…corruption

• Proposing a Constitutional Amendment to impose term limits on all members of Congress;
• A hiring freeze on all federal employees to reduce federal workforce through attrition (exempting military, public safety, and public health)
• A requirement that for every new federal regulation, two existing regulations must be eliminated;
• A 5 year-ban on White House and Congressional officials becoming lobbyists after they leave government service
• A lifetime ban on White House officials lobbying on behalf of a foreign government;
• A complete ban on foreign lobbyists raising money for American elections.

“On the same day, I will begin taking the following seven actions to protect American workers:

• Announce my intention to renegotiate NAFTA or withdraw from it entirely.
• Announce US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
• Direct the Secretary of the Treasury to label China a currency manipulator.
• Direct the Secretary of Commerce and US Trade Representative to identify all foreign trading abuses that unfairly impact American workers and direct them to use every tool under American and international law to end those abuses immediately.
• Lifting the restrictions on the production of American energy reserves, including shale, oil, natural gas and clean coal.
• Lift restrictions on energy infrastructure projects, like the Keystone Pipeline.
• Transferring “billions in payments to U.N. climate change programs” to US water and environmental infrastructure

“Additionally, on the first day, I will take the following five actions to restore security and the constitutional rule of law:

• Cancelling every “unconstitutional” executive action, memorandum and order issued by President Obama
• Beginning the process of selecting a replacement for Justice Scalia from one of the 20 judges on my list, who will uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States
• Cancelling all federal funding to Sanctuary Cities
• Beginning removing the more than 2 million criminal illegal immigrants from the country and cancel visas to foreign countries that won’t take them back
• Suspending immigration from terror-prone regions where vetting cannot safely occur. All vetting of people coming into our country will be considered extreme vetting.

“Next, I will work with Congress to introduce the following broader legislative measures and fight for their passage within the first 100 days of my Administration”

• A Middle Class Tax Relief And Simplification Act offering reductions in personal tax (“ A middle-class family with 2 children will get a 35% tax cut”), corporate profit tax reduced from 35 to 15 percent, and “the trillions of dollars of American corporate money overseas” able to be repatriated “at a 10 percent rate”.
• An End The Offshoring Act“establishing tariffs to discourage companies from laying off their [US] workers in order to relocate.
• An American Energy & Infrastructure Act offering tax incentives to spur $1 trillion in infrastructure investment over 10 years.
• A School Choice And Education Opportunity Act redirecting government funds “to give parents the right to send their kid to the public, private, charter, magnet, religious or home school of their choice”
• A Repeal and Replace Obamacare Act. “Fully repeals Obamacare”
• An Affordable Childcare and Eldercare Act “allowing Americans to deduct childcare and elder care from their taxes” and offering other tax incentives for employers providing on-site childcare services, and taxpayers saving for young and elderly dependents.
• An End Illegal Immigration Act fully funding a wall on America’s southern border, to be  reimbursed by Mexico, imposing tougher penalties on illegal and overstaying immigrants and ensuring “open jobs are offered to American workers first”
• A Restoring Community Safety Act increasing funding for local police, federal law enforcement agencies and federal prosecutors.
• A Restoring National Security Act increasing military spending
• A Clean up Corruption in Washington Act which “enacts new ethics reforms to Drain the Swamp and reduce the corrupting influence of special interests on our politics”.